Your Open Rates Are Lying to You

So, um, yesterday we touched
on open rates, right?

Yeah.

And it's totally understandable
why you'd be watching that number.

Hmm.

You know, thinking it's a clear
sign your newsletter's landing,

that you're making progress.

Absolutely.

I mean, you log into your email
platform and bam, that open rate is

usually right there, front and center.

So prominent

feels like a quick check.

You know, are people
even seeing this stuff?

It does feel like that.

But today, let's kind of pull
back the curtain a little.

Yeah.

'cause well putting too much
weight on that open rate, it

might not give you the full story.

Mm-hmm.

Or maybe even worse, it could be
painting a picture that isn't quite,

uh, accurate for you and the progress
you're actually trying to track.

Exactly.

And that's why we wanted to
bring in the perspective of, uh,

Ambreen and Sam from Reply Two.

Ah, Reply Two.

Yeah.

They run an email agency
just for creators.

They're really good at helping folks
zero in on what truly drives results.

Ambreen has that design background
print, then digital, so she

gets the reader experience.

She really does.

And Sam's the tech whiz, making sure
all the behind the scenes stuff,

the nuts and bolts, just works

perfect combo.

So our goal today really is to help
everyone understand why obsessing

over open rates probably isn't the
best way to gauge success anymore,

especially now.

And more importantly, what
should you be looking at instead?

For those real actionable insights
about your newsletter's performance and

crucially the progress you're making.

Okay, so let's dive in.

What exactly was the open
rate supposed to tell us?

Why did it become such a big deal?

Good question.

What's the traditional thinking?

Well, traditionally it was meant
to be the percentage of people

who, you know, open your email.

Simple as that.

How do they track it?

It was usually done with a tiny, like
single pixel image, often invisible.

Hidden in the email.

The spy pixel.

Ah, yeah.

Kind of.

When someone's email program loaded
that image, because they viewed the

email, it sent a signal back, ping.

Counted as an open

and for ages.

That was like the metric.

It really was.

It felt like the first hurdle.

Did your subject line work?

Did they even bother to look?

It gave you a sense, a starting point,

made sense back then.

If they didn't open, they definitely
weren't reading your amazing content.

So yeah, a high open rate
felt like a clear win for you.

Seems straightforward,

but things have changed, and this is where
it gets really interesting for creators.

What's the big disruptor here?

Privacy specifically.

Apple mail privacy protection.

That was the real game changer.

Ah,

MPP.

Tell us what it does.

Okay, so what Apple started
doing is automatically preloading

email content, including those
tracking pixels in the background

before the user actually opens the email.

Exactly.

Sometimes even if they never open
it, it happens on Apple servers.

So your email platform gets that
ping regardless of whether a

human, I ever saw your email.

Whoa.

So suddenly those open rates
you're seeing could be.

Well, massively inflated.

Potentially.

Yeah.

Especially if a large chunk of
your audience uses apple mail, it's

like the system opens it for them.

It's like getting credit for attendance
just because your name's on the list.

And it's not just Apple anymore, is it?

Others are following suit.

That's the trend.

More email clients are implementing
similar privacy features.

Which look is generally
good for user privacy.

We all want that

of course.

But for creators trying to
understand engagement based on

opens, it throws a real curve ball.

You might see a 50% open rate
and think, wow, I'm killing it.

Right?

Feels good.

But a big portion of that could
just be the privacy tech doing

its thing, not actual readers.

It's less indicative of.

Real engagement

and that really gets to the heart of the
problem for you, the creator, doesn't it?

Yeah.

These potentially inflated
numbers, they don't tell you if

people are genuinely connecting.

Precisely.

You might get that little dopamine
hit from the high number, but

what does it actually tell you
about whether your message landed?

Did they find it valuable?

Is it helping you make progress
towards your actual goals?

Yeah,

it's a bit of a vanity
metric now, perhaps.

It's certainly leaning that way.

You could have a fantastic open rate,
but if nobody clicks on any links

inside, what does that really mean?

It suggests maybe the subject line worked,
but the content didn't hold them, or

maybe they never even saw the content.

Exactly, and that's why the focus really
needs to shift towards click through rate.

CTR.

Okay.

Click through rate.

Let's break that down.

Why is that a more reliable
signal for measuring progress?

Think about it this way.

An open, especially
now, is pretty passive.

It might have happened
automatically a click though.

That's an act of choice,

right?

Someone has to physically do something.

Yes, they read something, got
interested enough and made a

conscious decision to click a link.

To learn more, visit your site, buy
something, whatever you ask them to do,

that's a much stronger
signal of real interest.

They're actually engaging with
the content, not just maybe

glancing at the subject line.

It demonstrates genuine interaction.

It tells you your content is
actually prompting action, which

is usually the goal, right?

You want them to do something
as a result of reading.

That makes complete sense.

It's active versus potentially passive.

Now I know some email platforms, the
ESGs, they sometimes claim they can

sort of adjust for these privacy opens.

Yeah.

You see that messaging?

How effective is that really?

Can they actually tell
the difference accurately?

Well, they're trying, some ESPs
use various methods, maybe looking

at other signals or trying to
estimate the MPP impact for you.

Right.

But honestly.

It's really difficult.

The methods are often imperfect.

It's hard to be certain.

It's still not a clean metric.

They can only give you a partial picture,
maybe a slightly less inflated guess.

So even with adjustments, relying
heavily on open rate still leaves you

kind of guessing about true engagement.

It really does.

It remains an imperfect metric, even
with those attempts to clean it up.

Okay.

So if open rates are unreliable, what's a
concrete like actionable thing a creator

listening right now can do to get a better
read on their audience and their progress?

Segmentation specifically segmenting
your list based on clicks.

Ooh, okay.

Tell me more.

Instead of worrying about who
opened, focus intensely on

who is actually clicking the
links in your emails over time.

These are your people,

your engaged audience.

Absolutely.

These clickers are actively
showing you they're interested.

They're the ones leaning in.

They're demonstrating that your
content is hitting the mark for them.

I love that it feels much more tangible.

So identify the clickers.

What then, how do you
use that information?

Treat them like your VIPs.

Because they are, you can create
segments just for these engaged

folks and send them different stuff.

Potentially.

Yeah.

Or maybe just ensure they
always get your best content.

You could offer them exclusives,
early access, deeper dives into

topics that clicked on before.

It rewards their engagement.

Nice.

And it helps you refine your strategy
because you're learning directly from what

your most active subscribers respond to.

You're focusing your energy effectively.

That's super smart.

It shifts focus from a fuzzy
number to actual behavior.

Mm. Helping you see real progress
with the audience that matters most.

Okay.

Let's tie this back to the
bigger picture For creators.

You're putting all this effort
into your newsletter because you

wanna achieve something, right?

You want progress, grow your
audience, deepen that connection.

Maybe attract sponsors,

maybe attract those, uh, drooling
sponsors as I think UmbAmbreen

and Sam playfully call them, huh?

Yes, exactly.

Those desired outcomes.

How does focusing on clicks on
CPR specifically help you make

that kind of tangible progress?

It connects directly.

A higher click-through rate
means your content is resonating,

it's relevant, it's engaging,

which leads to

a more loyal, active audience.

People who stick around who value
what you provide, and that is what's

attractive to potential sponsors.

They wanna see an audience
that pays attention, that acts

not just a big list size
with questionable open rates,

precisely An engaged audience proven
by clicks is also more likely to

share your work, to become advocates,
helping you grow organically.

It all feeds into that
progress you're looking for.

It really is a positive cycle, isn't it?

Good content drives clicks.

Clicks show engagement.

Engagement attracts
opportunities and growth progress

at the Loop you want.

So tell us a bit more about
Reply Two's philosophy.

They talk about more growth, less hassle.

Mm-hmm.

How does ditching the open
rate obsession fit into that?

Their whole approach is about
letting creators focus on creating,

you know, doing what they love.

Taking the tech headache away.

Exactly.

Sam handles the complex stuff.

They manage the operational side, the
email tech, so the creator doesn't

get bogged down in the nitty gritty,

like analyzing imperfect metrics,

like chasing vanity metrics by
helping creators understand why

opens are flawed and guiding them
towards metrics like CTR that actually

reflect engagement and progress.

They enable smarter decisions.

You focus your creative energy where it
counts leading to real growth, but without

the stress of decoding misleading numbers.

It's about efficient, effective progress.

That sounds like such a relief for
creators who just wanna connect

and build something meaningful.

Okay, let's really hammer this home.

Let's do it.

The main takeaway today.

In our current email world with
privacy features becoming standard open

rates, they're just not the reliable
gauge of performance or progress.

They once were,

definitely not.

They might be big and
bold on your dashboard.

But you gotta take 'em
with a huge grain of salt.

They can be seriously misleading.

So for you, the creator, wanting
to see real progress, the key is

to consciously shift your focus.

Yep.

Move towards more meaningful metrics.

Things that show actual interaction,

especially click-through rates,

that's where the gold is.

Clicks tell you who's engaged,
what content works, and where

you're actually making progress
towards those tools you have.

That's the data that fuels
real growth and connection.

Couldn't agree more.

Pay attention to the clicks.

That's your clearest signal.

This has been super clarifying.

So here's a final thought
to leave you with.

Oh, okay.

Now that you know, open rates can be
misleading, what other assumptions might

you be making about how your audience
engages and how can you find more direct,

more reliable ways to measure their
interest and the progress you're making?

Good question to ponder.

Definitely something to think about.

Thanks for tuning into this 3 0 3 podcast.